BTC/USD Morning Brief: July 31, 2026
BTC/USD trades at $64,333 as the market continues to construct a local price floor following weeks of range-bound price action. Buyers are actively defending immediate intraday support at $63,500, while upside attempts remain capped beneath overhead supply in the $65,400 region. On-chain derivative tracking indicates a massive long position accumulating on Bybit, mirroring the positioning pattern seen in mid-June before a major price expansion.
Underlying valuation metrics increasingly reflect seller exhaustion across the network. According to data from On-Chain Mind, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio sits at the 22nd percentile, meaning BTC has traded at higher relative valuations in 78% of its history. Meanwhile, analytics firm Alphractal highlights a stabilization in total stablecoin transaction volume, a characteristic hallmark of previous market bottoms. Long-term conviction remains firm as supply held for over one year grows at an accelerated pace of +217,000 BTC per month since December 2025. While this steady holding absorbs circulating float, the absence of active distribution to short-term participants confirms that new retail demand is taking time to build.
Corporate treasury expansion and macro allocations continue to pull circulating coins off the market. Public companies in the US now hold 1.24 million BTC, representing 92.7% of global corporate reserves after adding 510,000 BTC over the last year. This accumulation pace surpasses three times the total mined supply over that same period. Macro investor Ray Dalio also reaffirmed his personal 1% portfolio allocation to Bitcoin.
On the regulatory front, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer introduced the Anti-Corruption Bureau Creation Act, highlighting President Donald Trump’s reported $1.4 billion in crypto earnings and alleging over $1 billion in family crypto holdings tied to foreign funds.
Market Overview: Persistent corporate accumulation, low historical valuation metrics, and stabilizing on-chain activity point to a market forming a structural bottom, keeping the intraday path of least resistance tilted toward a gradual recovery. For upcoming sessions, price action is expected to range between $64,200 and $65,200. A sustained breach above $65,800 is required to unlock momentum toward $66,500 and the broader upside target at $68,500. Should intraday selling pressure force a loss of $64,000, expect a brief liquidity sweep down toward structural demand at $61,200, where strong institutional buying interest is positioned to cap further downside.