USD/JPY – Technical Analysis (H1)

The local bullish structure (which is in reality only part of a larger corrective upward move rather than an independent trend) appears highly unconvincing. New highs are forming rounded tops, which may signal exhaustion. As a result, another decline toward the balance support at 158.500 can be expected.

Key Levels:

1. 158.500 – balance support / primary downside target
2. 159.700 – potential new local high

Primary Scenario:

Decline toward 158.500.

Alternative Scenario:

Formation of a new local extreme near 159.700, followed by a reversal lower toward 158.500.

Analyst Commentary:

It is preferable to wait for confirming signals. Keep in mind the “Friday factor” as well — markets tend to quiet down ahead of the weekend.